Google Ads & Meta Ads: What You Can (and Can’t) Believe About Revenue Numbers
Are you running digital ads for your business? GREAT! Now, the real challenge is figuring out what’s real and what’s fluff when it comes to the data from platforms like Google Ads and Meta Ads. These platforms are designed to make your campaigns look really successful—but does that really mean you should trust everything they report?
Let’s cut through the B.S. and separate facts from fiction.
What You Can Believe
1. The Basics: Clicks & Impressions
Both Google and Meta are pretty good at tracking clicks and impressions—I mean, their business depends on it. There may be slight discrepancies here and there, but these numbers are generally reliable.
2. Ad Spend & Cost Metrics
Your ad spend, cost-per-click (CPC), and cost-per-impression (CPM) numbers are straightforward. These platforms charge you based on these metrics, so they’re very unlikely to manipulate this data. HOWEVER, they do sometimes present CPCs and CPMs in ways that make you feel like you’re winning, even when you’re not.
3. Conversions—But With a Catch!
Proper tracking (Meta Pixel, Google Tag Manager, etc.) gives you pretty good conversion data. But here’s the catch: platforms love to use “modeled conversions” for users who take multiple touchpoints before actually converting. This can inflate results beyond what actually occurred.
What You Can’t Believe
1. Revenue & Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) Metrics
Both Google and Meta take credit for every sale they can—even if the buyer would’ve converted anyway. Here’s how they do this:
They count any conversion where the user clicked or viewed an ad—even if that person would have purchased anyway.
Meta Ads' "view-through conversions" count someone who saw (but didn’t click) an ad and later made a purchase. This inflates results.
Google Ads tends to double-count conversions if a user interacts with multiple Google touchpoints.
Real-world impact? Your ad platform may claim a 5x ROAS, but when you check Shopify, Stripe, or your CRM, the actual lift in sales is much lower.
2. Attribution Windows Can Mislead You
Google and Meta offer different attribution models, but by default:
Meta uses a 7-day click & 1-day view window, meaning someone who saw your ad but bought a week later gets counted.
Google often uses a 30-day window, which can significantly inflate conversions, especially in high-ticket industries.
What to do? Compare results across different attribution models and use first-party analytics (like Google Analytics 4) for a better picture.
3. "Projected" or "Modeled" Conversions
Both platforms estimate conversions when they don’t have complete tracking data. Sounds helpful, right? The catch: they’re not always right. While these models can be useful, they also inflate performance metrics to encourage more ad spend.
How to Get the Real Revenue Picture
Since ad platforms want to show the best results possible, you need a second source of truth to verify revenue:
1. Use Google Analytics 4 (GA4) or Server-Side Tracking
GA4 is less biased than Google Ads because it tracks multi-touch customer journeys, not just ad interactions. Server-side tracking tools help cut down on over-attribution.
2. Compare Ad Revenue to Your Actual Sales Data
If Meta says your ads drove $50,000 in revenue, but your Shopify account only shows a $20,000 increase in sales, you know there's over-attribution. Use UTM tracking to isolate ad-driven sales from organic ones.
3. Test Turning Ads Off
Want to know if your ads are really working? Turn them off. If revenue stays the same, your ads weren’t doing as much as you though. And if revenue drops, then you know they were actually contributing.
Trust, But Verify
Google Ads and Meta Ads aren’t lying—but they’re definitely spinning the numbers in their favor. By using independent tracking tools, comparing against real sales data, and testing assumptions, you can make smarter marketing decisions and ensure you’re spending profitably.
Would you trust your financials to a company whose entire business is based on getting you to spend more? Neither should you trust their ad revenue numbers blindly.
After 10 years of experience in the digital marketing space, our team at 2ten Marketing has managed countless digital ad campaigns and knows exactly how to cut through the B.S. to get a real picture of performance.
If you’re tired of guessing what’s real in your ad reports, let’s talk!
